Investimento Fisher

Philip Fisher, autor de “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” (1958), desenvolveu uma abordagem de investimento que complementa e em muitos aspectos contradiz a abordagem quantitativa de Graham. Fisher focou em qualidade — não em price vs. intrinsic value, mas em what makes a great company e como identificar empresas que geram returns extraordinários over decades.

Os 15 Pontos de Fisher

Fisher propôs 15 pontos para avaliar uma empresa como investment:

Pontos de Qualidade de Management

1. Does management have a good attitude toward its people? — empresas que respeitam employees criam loyalty e innovation. No Brasil: Natura é exemplo de management people-focused.

2. Does the company have outstanding executive relations? — harmonia entre executives indica stability. Infighting → instability.

3. Does the company have depth in management? — não depende de um CEO. Se CEO leaves, company continues strong.

4. Is management sufficiently flexible? — adapts to change, não stuck em old ways. No Brasil: companies que adapted to digital transformation (Banco Inter) vs. stuck ones.

Pontos de Growth

5. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential? — pode grow 5-10x over next decade. Exemplo brasileiro: PagSeguro em fintech, expanding market.

6. Has the management a determination to continue to develop products? — R&D investment, não resting on current products. WEG em engineering innovation.

7. Does the company have an above-average sales organization? — sales excellence matters. No B3: Localiza com sales/service excellence.

8. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin? — Fisher prefer companies com margins above average em their industry.

9. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations? — low turnover, high morale = productivity.

Pontos de Competitive Advantage

10. Does the company have good cost controls? — lean operations, efficient resource use.

11. Are there aspects of the business which give it a competitive edge? — patents, brands, distribution networks, technology. No Brasil: Ambev com distribution network e brand portfolio.

12. Does the company have short-range or long-range outlook? — Fisher prefers long-range thinkers que sacrifice short-term profit for long-term growth.

13. Is the company likely to have to raise equity capital? — dilution risk. Fisher prefers companies que can fund growth internally.

Pontos de Integrity

14. Does management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but “clam up” when troubles arise? — transparency é integrity signal. Fisher wary of companies que hide problems.

15. Does management have an unquestionable integrity? — the most important point. Management que lacks integrity will ultimately destroy shareholder value regardless of other qualities.

Scuttlebutt — O Método de Investigação

Fisher não analisa companies apenas de numbers — ele investiga qualitativamente:

O Método Scuttlebutt

1. Talk to customers — what they really think about product/service
2. Talk to suppliers — how company treats them, payment reliability
3. Talk to competitors — what they respect/fear about company
4. Talk to former employees — why they left, what they saw inside
5. Talk to trade association executives — industry reputation
6. Talk to industry researchers — technology positioning

Fisher believed que qualitative information from these sources reveals truths que financial statements cannot — real competitive position, management culture, innovation pipeline.

Aplicação no Brasil

Para investidores brasileiros, scuttlebutt é challenging but possible:

• Consumer companies — try products, visit stores, talk to salespeople
• Banks — open accounts, experience service, compare processes
• Industrial companies — visit factories, talk to suppliers na B3
• Tech companies — use apps, read reviews, talk to developers
• Industry events — Feira ABIMEP, FEBRABAN conference, commodity seminars

Hold vs. Sell

Fisher é famoso por seu philosophy de long holding:

Quando Não Vender

• “If the job was done correctly in the first place, the best time to sell is — almost never”
• Great companies compound value over decades
• Selling triggers tax liabilities
• Switching costs (finding next great company) are high

Quando Vender

1. Original investment thesis was wrong — company não é what you thought
2. Management deteriorated — integrity lost, quality declining
3. Better opportunity exists — only if significantly better, não marginal
4. Company outgrew its market — growth potential exhausted

Fisher não sells because:

• Price went up (that’s success, not reason to sell)
• Market is “overvalued” (great companies transcend market cycles)
• Short-term bad news (temporary setbacks são normal)

Fisher vs. Graham

Aspecto	Graham	Fisher
Focus	Quantitative (price vs. value)	Qualitative (company quality)
Target	Undervalued stocks	Outstanding growth companies
Holding	Until price reaches intrinsic value	Nearly forever
Risk	Price risk (margin of safety)	Business risk (management quality)
Diversification	Broad (many stocks)	Concentrated (few great stocks)
Information	Financial statements	Scuttlebutt investigation

Warren Buffett famously said: “I’m 85% Graham and 15% Fisher.” Over time, Buffett shifted more toward Fisher — quality matters more than price.

Aplicação Fisher no B3

Companies Fisher-like no Brasil

Empresas que passariam Fisher’s 15 points:

• WEG — management depth, R&D, global expansion, integrity
• Natura — people-focused management, sustainability, brand strength
• Localiza — operational excellence, management quality, growth path
• Itaú Unibanco — management depth, competitive edge (scale), profit margins
• Ambev — cost controls, distribution network, management execution

Companies Fisher Would Avoid

• Petrobras — government-controlled (management integrity question), capital-intensive, political interference
• Companies com governance scandals — integrity is Fisher’s #1 criterion
• Companies resting on past success — não investing in R&D/future

Conclusão

Fisher oferece ao investidor brasileiro uma alternative: não buscar undervalued stocks (Graham), mas outstanding companies que compõem value over decades. Scuttlebutt investigation, 15 quality points e nearly-permanent holding são pillars desta approach. Em um mercado como o B3 — com governance challenges e few truly outstanding companies — Fisher’s standards are strict but rewarding. Find 3-5 Fisher-quality companies e hold nearly forever may be the best path para long-term wealth.

Investimento Fisher